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2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震前甘肃天水花牛的水氡出现了与汶川8.0级地震极为相似的异常变化并在震前已被重点跟踪.为了对花牛水氡2013年出现的异常与岷县漳县地震的关系给出合理的判断,本文分析了花牛水氡正常的趋势背景和年变化形态,给出了正常背景和异常变化的判别指标;分析了花牛水氡的主要影响因素,认为气温是花牛水氡出现年变的主要因素,日降雨量达到一定量级才能引起水氡的短暂变化;着重从水氡测值的可靠性、影响因素的不一致性、多学科前兆变化的协调性、异常的重现性、异常与岷县地震的时空相关性等方面对2013年4月以来的异常进行了详细的分析和论证.研究结果可以判定,2013年4月以来天水花牛水氡出现的异常作为岷县漳县6.6级地震的异常是可信并可靠的. 相似文献
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After the Ms6.6 earthquake occurred in the border region between Min and Zhang counties of Gansu Province on July 22, 2013, we preliminarily estimated the earthquake sequence to be a main shock-aftershock type based on the history of moderate-strong earthquake sequences in this area. As time went on, there were more aftershock events. These could be used for further analysis, and then for further decision on the earthquake sequence type. Finally, we determined the Ms6.6 earthquake sequence that occurred in the border region between Min and Zhang counties, Gansu Province as having been a main shock-aftershock type, with the largest Ms5.6 aftershock having occurred on the same day as the main Ms6.6 shock, from a comprehensive analysis of the historical characteristics of moderatety strong earthquakes of the earthquake zone, and the space-time evolution characteristics and parameters of the earthquake sequence. These provided a correct basis for anti- earthquake relief work and played an important role in mitigating the earthquake disaster and stabilizing the disturbed soci- ety after the earthquake in the earthquake zone and its neighboring areas. Reviewing the forecasting process and the re- sults, we found that we had successfully predicted the Ms6.6 earthquake that occurred in the border region between Min and Zhang counties on July 22, 2013 several years before it occurred. The magnitude and location of the earthquake had been predicted accurately, and the accuracy of the prediction was much higher than any other example in Chinese earth- quake prediction history. Forecasting on a monthly scale, we had indicated at the monthly meeting on earthquake prediction at the end of February, 2013 that there would be a risk of a moderately strong earthquake in Gansu Province from the change in moderately strong earthquake activity on the Chinese mainland. Even for short and impending earthquake prediction from several days to several dozens of days, we had proposed the likelihood of a moderate-strong earthquake happening in Gansu Province and the adjacent areas from the results of previous studies and the cases of earthquakes with MI ≥ 4.0 from the time before the Ms6.6 earthquake occurred. In a meeting about earthquake prediction held several days before the occurrence of the Ms6.6 event, we made the prediction that there would be an earthquake of M≥ 5.0 happening somewhere in Gansu Province and the surrounding area within dozens of days. The fact we had successfully predicted the Ms6.6 earth-quake on a several-year scale, as well as over a short time period to some extent, reinforces our belief that earthquakes can be forecast. Even with our present level of understanding, we can still capture some information on the gestation and occurrence of earthquakes before the arrival of a disaster. However, in order to achieve the goal of earthquake prediction in China, earthquake scientists still need to make arduous efforts. As long as earthquake scientists use the correct approach, and government supplies the necessary manpower and material resources to predict earthquakes, we believe that there will be a hope to achieve the aim of earthquake prediction with a relief effect. It is promising that we have achieved at least one or two earthquake forecasts. 相似文献
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日本钢筋混凝土结构抗震加固技术现状与发展趋势 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
既有钢筋混凝土结构的丰富而可靠的抗震加固技术是提升我国建筑物抗震性能,实现社会可持续发展的重要保障.在长期工程实践的积累中,日本建筑界逐渐发展出一套行之有效的抗震性能评估、加固设计体系和多种多样的抗震加固技术,值得我国借鉴.文章在简要回顾日本抗震加固设计方法之后,介绍了日本钢筋混凝土结构抗震加固的传统方法,总结了近年来在传统加固方法基础上所做的改良,并在此基础上,从外附子结构、消能减震化和自复位技术等3个方面归纳了日本新一代钢筋混凝土结构抗震加固技术的发展趋势. 相似文献
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利用新源单台记录到的2012年6月30日新源、和静MS6.6地震序列以及震前的数字地震波资料,分析地震前后尾波Q值的变化特征.结果表明,在地震前后Q值有明显变化,而随着强震后能量的释放,Q值趋于平缓.通过对Q值变化特征的研究,可以为地震预报工作提供可靠依据. 相似文献
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